Sunday, April 5, 2015

History



The war in Turkey.

The invasion of Turkey will occur as an extension by the EU and Russia into Turkey on invitation of the Turkish government. This invitation will be secret.
The reason why Turkey will invite a proxy war in its own country is because of the escalation of the war in the ME.
The war in the ME, lets call it WW3, will be over the superstate. Islam...probably cannot form a superstate purely on the basis of a Caliph: Pakistan, India, Indonesia and other peripheral states, like Tunisia, Morocco, Algiers, Khazakstan, Azerbaijain, there is little incentive.
However, Iran, Turkey and Arabia have been trying to build a superstate there, and have for centuries here, and centuries there...so the time is now due to the necessity of creating a superstate to compete with the other superstates: China, India, the EU, Nafta, etc.

The border in Africa can stay. There will always be insurgents, and during the surge of hands to contest who the superstate head is going to be (it wont be Turkey), the Christian-Muslim border will undergo some contention.
Kenya might experience an invasion, while Nigeria may be deliberately shifted toward Christianity.
Or, the Muslim might gain another State in Southern Africa.
Furthermore, if the Sahara greens, like Global Warming would predict; this would alleviate what might be a generations long struggle.

Regardless, to stem the tide of fervant energy up the Tigris-Euphrates into Turkey, the war in Syria serves to sink the current reformists revolts, and create a null space around which a larger war can be enabled.
Saudi Arabia may fall, but that means a more fervent class seeking to save Arabia's symbolic administration of the ideology...or really rule of their idea.
Sorta like Communist state purges of Capitalist Roaders...the state that will seek to resist this recent rise of Iranian hegemony will create the greatest amount of all out War.
Who will win is hard to say, but it looks like Iran is going to have the upper hand in that doctrinal arguments have been purged, and the secularists have not been.
Meanwhile, the Saudi's entertain two or three rival sects.
It may be that across North Africa, there will be little fighting. Libya, or Tripoli, may regain control over Libya proper, via armed conflict.

However, the war will center on Arabia. This war will not spill over into Israel, as suspected the Muslims are not monolithically 'against' any group of people...though the official policy may be against apostasy...the apostates they worry about are the Shi'ites, not the Jews.

However, Israel will have border skirmishes, perhaps even an invasion attempt by a fractured coalition. No one state could take on Israel, except perhaps the superstate that is to be established...by the Shi'ites or the Sunni's.
It looks to me like the Saudi's are going to have a very difficult time.

Who knows how bad or well they treated their people. The might take refuge in other countries, for instance England. I think this would be okay; most of the Saudi's are probably perfectly fine people who had nothing to do with a oppressive state...although, as per any overthrow of a Monarchy (one of its other fatal errors...the other is vanity in its genetics) is that the abuses of Monarchy: the over bearing, over reaching, vain and ill treatment by members of the Monarchy (it happens with rich people over here, but then again, they are not considered guardians of the State!) create a opposing class, usually peasents, who with nothing less to lose, rise and overthrow.

One would think this is obvious in study, but the Arabians have a narcissism about Islam, naturally because they control its most of its purse strings.


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